How does this compare to previous years?
If you live in a coastal area that has been ravaged by hurricanes for the last few years, you might be asking: how does this prediction compare to the realities of previous years?
In 2023, we experienced the fourth most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. This meant 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.[5] It’s worth noting that predictions for that year were for a near-normal hurricane season with only 12-17 named storms forecasted with 5 to 9 hurricanes and 1 to 4 major hurricanes. The number of storms was underestimated, but the rest of the predictions were on the high side of the estimates, but otherwise accurate.[6]
In 2022, the hurricane season was just about average (14 named storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes).[7] This time the predictions were actually overestimated at the NOAA predicted above-average hurricane activity, estimating 14 to 21 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 6 major hurricanes). Again not too far off, but either low or at the low end of estimates.[8]
These illustrate that while the NOAA predictions are based on scientific data, they are still estimates and aren’t a guarantee of what will happen. Hopefully, the predictions for 2024, will be an overestimate as in 2022, and not an underestimation as in 2023.
