Resource Center Next Homeowners

Is 2026 Expected to Be a Busy Hurricane Season?

Plus: How to Prepare Your Home

Author profile picture
By Susan Meyer Info
Updated May 15, 2026
Quality verified Reviewed By Beth Swanson Info
Quality verified Edited By Bree Matheson Info
Author profile picture

Susan Meyer

Senior Editorial Manager

Susan is a licensed insurance agent and has worked as a writer and editor for over 10 years across a number of industries. She has worked at The Zebr…

Credentials
  • Licensed Insurance Agent — Property and Casualty
View full profile Right arrow icon
Author profile picture

Beth Swanson

Insurance Analyst

Beth joined The Zebra in 2022 as an Associate Content Strategist. A licensed insurance agent, she specializes in creating clear, accessible content t…

Credentials
  • Licensed Insurance Agent — Property and Casualty
  • Associate in Insurance (AINS)
  • Professional Risk Consultant (PRC)
  • Associate in Insurance Services (AIS)
View full profile Right arrow icon
Author profile picture

Bree Matheson

Insurance Insights Researcher

Bree Matheson joined The Zebra in 2025, where she conducts research focused on insurance and consumer behavior. She holds a PhD in Technical Communic…

View full profile Right arrow icon
Jump to Chevron down icon
  1. 2026 hurricane forecast
  2. Why fewer hurricanes?
  3. What experts are saying
  4. How does this compare to previous seasons?
  5. How can you prepare?

Will 2026 Bring Stormy Weather?

While most people are spending the end of May and early June excited for graduation season and the start of summer, June 1 marks another important distinction: the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Ahead of the official start of hurricane season, meteorologists and climate scientists have released their primary forecasts. While the last few years have seen high levels of activity, early indicators suggest that 2026 may offer a slight reprieve—though experts emphasize that "below average" does not mean "no risk."

Here is what you need to know about the upcoming season, the scientific drivers behind the forecasts, and how to prepare.

2026 Forecast: By the Numbers

Major forecasting institutions, including Colorado State University (CSU) and AccuWeather, are predicting a below-normal to near-normal season.[1][2] This shift is primarily attributed to a developing El Niño in the Pacific.[3]

Metric2026 Prediction (Average)30-Year Historical Average
Named Storms 11 – 13 14.4
Hurricanes 4 – 6 7.2
Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+) 1 – 2 3.2
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) ~63 – 90 123

Why the Downturn?

The headline for 2026 is the transition from La Niña to El Niño. 

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of a natural climate cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO disrupts normal weather patterns globally every two to seven years. El Niño is the warm phase, characterized by warmer ocean temperatures, while La Niña is the cool phase.

  • Hurricane icon
    The El Niño Factor

    During El Niño years, upper-level winds across the Atlantic and Caribbean typically strengthen. This creates vertical wind shear, which essentially "tips over" developing storms, preventing them from organizing into powerful hurricanes.

  • Strong-winds
    Warmer Oceans Fuel Hurricanes

    While wind shear is high, sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic remain warmer than average. Warm water acts as "fuel" for storms, so any storms that overcome the wind shear could become more powerful.

What Experts Are Saying

As mentioned above, warmer temperatures could lead to more serious storms even though there may be fewer overall. Leading experts like AccuWeather’s Alex DaSilva warn about the potential for "rapid intensification" of any storms that manage to overcome the wind shear.[4]

El Niño does not shut the Atlantic down completely; it just changes where storms are most likely to develop. Activity is typically less widespread, but at least one significant impact is still possible.

Forecasters remind the public of the 1992 season: it was a "quiet" year with few storms, yet it produced Hurricane Andrew, one of the most devastating Category 5 storms in U.S. history. The 2026 season names will start with Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal.

How Does This Year Compare to Previous Seasons?

The past few Atlantic hurricane seasons have been characterized by significant activity and record-breaking events, often fueled by exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures despite fluctuating global climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña, so it will be interesting to see how the 2026 season forecast pans out. 

The 2023 season was surprisingly busy, ranking as the fourth-most active on record for named storms, largely because the usual storm-suppressing effects of El Niño were offset by record-high Atlantic temperatures.

The 2024 season was even more intense, featuring the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record (Beryl) and a destructive late-season surge that brought devastating landfalls to the U.S. Southeast.

In contrast, the 2025 season saw a lower total number of storms but remained notable for its high proportion of major hurricanes, including the historic intensity of Hurricane Melissa.[5]

Hurricane Seasons 2023 - 2025 and 2026 Projections

How Can You Prepare for Hurricane Season?

Hurricanes can have devastating consequences for coastal towns and cities. High winds and flooding from storm surges can cause billions of dollars in damage.

If you live on the Atlantic or Gulf Coast, here are some ways you can prepare for the 2024 hurricane season to be ready no matter how active it turns out to be:

  1. Stay informed. The National Hurricane Center includes all public advisories and tropical cyclone updates. This year, it is expanding to offer information in Spanish as well.[9]
  2. Know how to prepare your home and get to safety. We’ve provided a more comprehensive resource on how to prepare for hurricanes. Learn how to prepare your home in advance, so you’re ready if a storm is heading your way.
  3. Know your insurance. Read through your existing home insurance or renters insurance, and car insurance policies to make sure your coverage is up to date.

Wrapping Up

While the 2026 outlook is statistically quieter than recent years, it only takes one storm hitting your backyard to make it an "active" season for you. Stay vigilant and start your preparations before the summer heat arrives. 

Sources

  1. Forecast for 2026 Hurricane Activity. [Colorado State University]

  2. Atlantic hurricane season forecast 2026: 11-16 named storms predicted by AccuWeather. [AccuWeather]

  3. El Nino Diagnostic Discussion. [NOAA]

  4. Rapid intensification: How hurricanes gain strength and why it's so dangerous. [AccuWeather]

  5. Hurricane Center. [NOAA]