Here’s a piece of positive news in 2025: fatal car accidents have been getting less frequent.
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration data, in the first three months of 2025, traffic fatalities fell by over 6%.[1] This is the twelfth consecutive quarter that fatalities have fallen, bringing traffic fatalities to their lowest rate in six years. And this is true even though vehicle miles driven have increased.[2]
Source: The Zebra
Why is this? We can thank a number of factors, including improved vehicle safety technologies like automatic braking, improved road design, and public safety campaigns.[3]
Knowing that car accidents are decreasing and that car accidents and their damages are a key cause of car insurance claims, does that mean car insurance costs are going down?
As discussed above, we’re in an era of decreasing fatal car accidents, which is overall good news. The combination of better safety features and better road design is leading to better outcomes for many drivers.Â
In the first half of 2025, motor-vehicle-related deaths decreased in 28 states and the District of Columbia. And it decreased by more than 20% in the following states:
However, while the overall trend in the country is for fatalities to decrease, there were also 10 states where fatalities increased:
Source: The Zebra
So what are some of the reasons for these regional differences? Let’s consider two of the states on the list with the highest increases in traffic fatalities: Oklahoma and Hawaii.Â
Oklahoma has a significant percentage of rural roads that are structurally deficient, and Oklahoma’s rural traffic fatality rate is almost double the fatality rate for its more urban roads.[4] Hawaii’s increases in fatalities could similarly be linked to its infrastructure. Reports indicate road safety indicators are falling behind, and sidewalk and bike infrastructure is also underdeveloped, which can lead to more motor-vehicle-related fatalities.[5] Â
At first glance, it might seem logical that if fewer car accidents are happening, auto insurance premiums should go down.
After all, fewer claims should mean lower costs for insurers. However, the reality is more complicated.
We don’t actually have reliable, recent statistics on everyday fender benders. Injury-causing and property-damage-only accidents are not always recorded. The average number of accidents with medically-consulted injuries was 5.1 million in 2023, and property damage-only crashes were estimated at 9.6 million.[6] So while better safety is leading to fewer deaths, that doesn’t necessarily translate to fewer insurance claims.Â
Even if the number of accidents decreases, the cost of repairing or replacing vehicles continues to climb. Modern cars are packed with sensors, cameras, and other expensive technology that make even minor repairs costly. Supply chain issues and labor shortages have also driven up parts and repair expenses, which insurers must factor into premiums.
Accidents that do occur are often more expensive due to higher medical bills and legal costs. As healthcare costs rise and lawsuits become more common or costly, insurance companies must reserve more funds for potential payouts — regardless of how often accidents happen.
While fewer fatal accidents are inarguably a good thing, car accidents are just one piece of the complex puzzle that determines insurance rates.
Until repair, medical and legal costs stabilize (and broader economic pressures ease), drivers are unlikely to see their premiums fall dramatically.
NHTSA Reports Sharp Drop in Traffic Fatalities in First Half of 2025. [NHTSA]
Preliminary Semiannual Estimates. [National Security Council]
When you design roads, that is public health.[Harvard Public Health]
Oklahoma roadways see uptick in traffic deaths, report finds. [KGOU]
Can Hawaiʻi Turn Around Another Deadly Year On The Roads? [Honolulu Civil Beat]
Motor Vehicle Deaths. [NSC]